1. What is ELO Win Probability?

The ELO win probability formula estimates the chance one team has to defeat another based on their ELO ratings. Originally developed for chess, it's now widely used in fantasy football to predict matchup outcomes.

2. How Does the Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the ELO probability formula:

Where:

• \( P \) — Win probability (0 to 1)
• \( R \) — Your team's ELO rating
• \( R_{opp} \) — Opponent's ELO rating

Explanation: The formula calculates the expected win probability based on the difference between two ELO ratings. A 400-point difference means the stronger team is 10 times more likely to win.

3. Importance in Fantasy Football

Details: ELO probabilities help fantasy managers assess matchup difficulty, make start/sit decisions, and evaluate team strength throughout the season.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter both teams' current ELO ratings. The calculator will show your team's win probability as a percentage. Higher ELO difference means higher win probability.

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What's a typical ELO range in fantasy football?
A: Most teams fall between 1200-1800. New teams start around 1500, with elite teams reaching 2000+.

Q2: How often should I update my team's ELO?
A: After each matchup. Wins increase your ELO, losses decrease it, with the amount depending on the opponent's strength.

Q3: Is 60% win probability good?
A: Yes, 60% indicates you're significantly favored. In fantasy, anything above 55% is considered a strong advantage.

Q4: Why 400 in the denominator?
A: This scaling factor determines how quickly win probability changes with rating difference. It's the standard value used in ELO systems.

Q5: Can I use this for DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports)?
A: Yes, but you'll need to calculate ELO for individual players rather than teams for optimal DFS application.